Climate Change and Maritime Heritage Vulnerability on the Southern Kenya Coast.

Abstract

Kenya's climatic trends indicate hotter, drier weather with more extreme events. Together with sea level rise, marine historic monuments, buildings and archaeological sites are at risk of permanent damage due to different patterns of decay. Unfortunately, with the rapid replacement of mangroves and sacred forests known as Kayas, littoral historic sites are vulnerable to saltwater intrusion, flooding and erosion by high tide action. The paper sought to establish landscape patterns that drive vulnerability to better target climate adaptation of historic Vanga, southern Kenya coast. The archival research method was selected to establish land cover change based on Landsat images from 1984-2023. Geo-spatial indicators selected to establish ecological change include: Patch Density, Mean Patch Size, Largest Patch Index and Landscape Shape Index. These landscape metrics were selected to determine patch isolation, evenness, dominance and complexity, respectively. In 40 years, built-up areas increased by 51.66 % at a rate of 0.55km²/year while mangrove forests and terrestrial vegetation decreased by 15% and 76% respectively. Shannon's entropy values increased from 0.329 to 0.336 indicating gradual urban sprawl. Mean patch size of mangroves decreased by 150m² while that of bare land increased by 100m². Landscape shape index values for mangrove and terrestrial vegetation were closer to 1, indicating landscape fragmentation. Higher built-up densities should be considered for optimal land use subject to residents’ perceptions of aesthetic values. Conservation planning is to consider consolidation, stabilization, renovation, reconstruction and adaptive reuse for littoral historic sites. Landscape restoration is to consider the preservation of old-growth fragments, regeneration of understory vegetation and expansion of ecological corridors. The paper targets climate adaptation of maritime built heritage in southern Kenya coast.